Climate Curves

Climate Intelligence & Live Weather

Global climate trends, ENSO monitoring, Arctic & Atlantic oscillations, regional impacts, live radar, and snowpack tracking.

Glossary — Key Terms

Global climate indicators: temperature, greenhouse gases, sea level, and ice. Dashed lines show statistical projections to 2050.

F001F009F029F030 CO‍₂–Temperature coupling surged from r=0.32 (pre-1980, non-significant) to r=0.95 (post-1980). Sensitivity: ~1.1°C per 100 ppm. CO‍₂ growth rate tripled since the 1960s (0.86→2.40 ppm/yr) but has plateaued since 2010. CO₂ and temperature are synchronous — no meaningful lag detected (detrended r=0.65). Removing volcanic cooling years does not fix the pre-1980 weakness, confirming it is a real structural break.

F005F024 Wildfire–temperature link is largely spurious — both variables share an upward time trend, but after detrending, the year-to-year correlation drops to r=−0.10 (p=0.51). Western summer heat is the best single predictor (r=0.63). Drought–wildfire link is concurrent only — prior-year drought has no lagged predictive power. Multi-predictor model (PDSI + summer temp) explains 42% of wildfire variance.

About the Projections

Dashed projection lines are statistical extrapolations of historical trends (polynomial or linear curve fits), not physics-based climate model outputs. Actual outcomes depend on future emission pathways.

ENSO & natural oscillations: Regional precipitation and drought projections use ENSO-aware decomposition — the secular climate trend is separated from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation signal (2–7 year cycles).

For scenario-based projections, see IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021).

US regional precipitation, snowfall, drought, and seasonal temperature changes. Use the dropdowns to toggle between historical and projected views. ENSO filters show how El Niño and La Niña years shift regional patterns.

F013 Eastern US is getting significantly wetter (+0.3–0.4 in/decade over 130 years). The Great Lakes region shows the largest increase at +8.4%. The West shows no significant trend, though post-1970 data hints at drying. High western variability (CV=24%) makes trend detection difficult.

F010 No statistically significant national SWE decline detected (p=0.18). However, this masks regional divergence: the Pacific Northwest shows a significant decline (-0.8 in/decade, p=0.003). Peak SWE timing has shifted 5–7 days earlier since 1980. Elevation matters: sites above 8,000 ft show less decline than lower sites.

F016 Peak SWE date is shifting 2.4 days/decade earlier across western mountains (p=0.063). 10 of 11 SNOTEL stations show earlier melt timing, with Wolf Creek Summit (−8.3 days/decade) and Lizard Head Pass (−6.1 days/decade) significant. Earlier melt accelerates spring runoff and reduces late-season water supply.

F019 Water Year Health shows no significant long-term decline (p=0.47) despite the 2020s being the worst modern decade. High interannual variability masks any secular trend. Drought persistence (autocorrelation=0.23) means dry years tend to cluster.

About the Projections

Dashed projection lines are statistical extrapolations of historical trends, not physics-based climate model outputs.

For scenario-based projections, see IPCC AR6 WG1 (2021).

Estimated climate-health risk indicators. These are conceptual models derived from climate data — not measured health outcomes. For observed health data, see CDC Climate and Health (cdc.gov/climateandhealth).

F015 The Climate Stress Index combines 7 normalized indicators (temp, CO₂, drought, Arctic ice, sea level, ocean heat, wildfire). It reveals a relentless, near-monotonic escalation (R²=0.87). The 2020s average (+3.0) is 4.6 standard deviations above the 1960s. 2025 is the most stressed year on record (CSI=3.70).

F007 La Niña years produce 40% more Atlantic hurricanes than El Niño years (8.0 vs 5.7 storms/season). The major hurricane rate doubles: 2.6 vs 1.3. This is driven by reduced wind shear over the Atlantic during La Niña. The relationship is strongest June–November.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation monitoring: ONI timeline, Niño region SSTs, phase frequency analysis, SOI correlation, MEI heatmap, teleconnection impacts, and ENSO prediction engine.

ONI Methodology

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is NOAA CPC's primary indicator for monitoring El Niño and La Niña. It tracks the 3-month running mean of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W).

Thresholds: El Niño = ONI ≥ +0.5°C for 5+ consecutive seasons | La Niña = ONI ≤ −0.5°C for 5+ consecutive seasons

F023 ONI, MEI, and SOI are interchangeable for ENSO classification (r>0.85 between all pairs). Surprising finding: Niño 1+2 (far eastern Pacific) is a better predictor of US winter temperatures (r=0.30, p<0.01) than the standard Niño 3.4 region.

F022 ENSO has no detectable influence on methane growth rate (r≈0, p=0.94). Despite tropical wetland CH₄ sources being climate-sensitive, the global signal does not track ENSO phase. Methane’s post-2007 resurgence appears driven by factors independent of Pacific SST variability.

ENSO Prediction Engine

Statistical ensemble combining persistence, Ridge regression, and analog methods. Validated on 2020–2026 out-of-sample.

What is the ONI?

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is the 3-month running mean of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. NOAA declares El Niño when ONI reaches +0.5°C for 5 consecutive seasons, and La Niña when it drops to −0.5°C.

Forecast Precipitation Impact

Probability-weighted expected precipitation anomaly from the ENSO prediction engine. Skillful out to ~6 months; marginal 7–9mo; low skill beyond 10mo.

Months Ahead:

1mo2mo3mo 4mo5mo6mo 7mo8mo9mo 10mo11mo12mo

F012F026 ENSO × AO compound states amplify winter temperature anomalies. El Niño + negative AO produces the warmest winters nationally (+1.2°F above normal). La Niña + positive AO drives the coldest (-0.8°F). Despite Arctic amplification, compound event frequency is not significantly changing — the most extreme compound state (EN/−AO) remains episodic.

Seasonal Outlook — ENSO-Conditioned Projections

How the current ENSO state affects seasonal conditions: snowpack, wildfire risk, and temperature patterns.

Data Health Monitor

Source	Provider	Status	Last Updated	Rows

Data Sources: NOAA CPC (ONI), NOAA PSL (Niño Indices, SOI, MEI v2), IRI Columbia (ENSO forecasts) | NOAA CAG (Seasonal Temps) | NIFC (Wildfire) | NOAA HURDAT2 (Hurricanes)

Climate teleconnections: how major oscillation patterns across the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific interact to drive global weather.

Global Climate Pattern Interaction Map

Browse any month from 1950–present to see how each oscillation was behaving.

Year: Month:

Oscillation Cross-Correlations

Pearson correlation between monthly index values over the full overlapping record.

ENSO ↔ Arctic & Atlantic Interactions

How Pacific ENSO variability couples with Arctic and Atlantic oscillations.

ENSO Phase Composite

Average index values during El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina months.

Lagged Cross-Correlation

Correlation between ENSO (Nino 3.4) this month and each index N months later.

December AO/NAO Forecast Skill

Correlation between December AO/NAO and the following winter's regional temperatures. December is the critical window when the winter pattern locks in.

Key Findings from the Historical Record

Strong El Nino events tend to push the NAO/AO negative in the following 1–4 months, increasing cold-outbreak risk for the US East Coast and Europe.
La Nina tends to favor positive AO/NAO, reinforcing the polar vortex and driving mild, wet winters in Northern Europe.
The AMO operates on 60–80 year cycles and modulates the ENSO–Atlantic link.
The ENSO–NAO coupling is not stationary — rolling correlations show decades where the link is strong and periods where it nearly vanishes.
When El Nino coincides with negative AO/NAO, the combination produces the most extreme winter impacts.

F002F008F027 Statistical analysis confirms: ENSO–AO/NAO coupling is weak in monthly data (r=−0.08 to −0.15) but emerges at seasonal lags. AO/NAO provide modest winter temperature forecast skill for the Northeast (r=0.3–0.4) and Central US. Critical timing discovery: November AO/NAO has zero predictive skill (0/18 tests significant), but December AO/NAO shows strong skill (11/18 significant, national NAO r=0.48). The winter pattern locks in during December.

What Do These Oscillations Mean?

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Measures the pressure difference between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Positive AO = strong polar vortex. Negative AO = weak vortex, allowing Arctic air to plunge south.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Pressure seesaw between the Icelandic Low and Azores High. Controls European and East Coast winter weather.

Atlantic Multidecadal Osc. (AMO)

Multi-decade swings in North Atlantic SSTs (60–80 year cycle). Modulates hurricane activity and long-term rainfall.

How They Interact

ENSO can influence NAO/AO with a 2–4 month lag. AMO modulates the background state on which ENSO and NAO operate.

Data Sources: NOAA PSL (AO, NAO, AMO indices) | NOAA CPC (ONI) | NOAA PSL (SOI, MEI v2)

Live precipitation radar, snow cover imagery, and SNOTEL station data. Data updates automatically from public APIs.

Data: RainViewer (Precipitation Radar) | Iowa State Mesonet (NEXRAD) | NASA GIBS (VIIRS Snow Cover) | NOAA NOHRSC (SWE) | USDA NRCS SNOTEL (Snowpack)

Glossary — Key Terms